With the recent events concerning the U.S. and China, I felt it was due to write insight into the conflicts. I have to once again stress the fact that no matter how much the news and other media forms are and are going to continue to shout, blab and in the most dramatic way, do everything they can to impress upon you that “we’re all gonna die!”
It simply will not happen. For starters, you will not be sitting on your porch one morning, having your morning coffee, to look up to see the picture above.
I’ve received many emails asking me about this, with the general theme of the questions being the same: “But how can you be so sure? China and the US are mad men.”
While I will not disagree with that statement, I will state that I lived through a few close calls, if you would like to call it that and as to be expected – although there were no media theatrics at the time – the television and print media were all over it to insure that the populace was as scared as possible.
So lets dig in. Why do I feel that the U.S. is not going to start an all-out war with China and most importantly, why I strongly believe that nuclear weapons will never see the light of day, (meaning that the missile silo’s doors will not be opened) much less actually get launched.
1) War is ugly and nobody wants it, or at least anyone of right mind, which can leave one very open to personal interpretation. But the fact remains, nobody wants a war. Having grown up in and around war and having been subjected to it for my entire existence, the last thing I want to see is more war.
2) War cost a lot of money (trillions) and at the present time, the one thing that everyone is short of is money. While there is no doubt in anyone’s mind that if some fool from say North Korea or China decided to lob a missile at the U.S., we would be instantly at war, regardless of the cost.
Given the fact that a long range missile would have to climb to an altitude just short of entering into space and given the fact that the missile, no matter the speed at which it was traveling, would still take a minimum of forty-five minutes to reach it’s intended target within the U.S. That time frame might be different if it was aimed at the state of Alaska, but for safety-sake, we are going to assume the country that launched it would not be interested in the U.S. state of Alaska.
Now that a missile is hurling through the air, ever so steady climbing to the altitude needed to make it’s journey, it is guaranteed that every country that was even remotely awake – and there are a lot of them that are very very awake 24/7 – would be shitting bricks, the phone calls would be furiously quick and rampant to determine what to do. It would almost immediately be determined that it needs to be shot out (blown up) of the sky long before it ever reached it’s intended target. What would happen to the missile that was exploded in mid air is worthy of another long complicated discussion some other time.
3) It is a historical fact that everyone on this planet has been and forever will be elated with joy when a war ends.
Case in point, the sailor pictured above was so happy the war ended with Japan, that he grabbed the first woman he saw to embrace in a kiss.
Before we get into the oddities of the world political stage, and believe me, it is deep and I could run on about it for days, if not months as once again, history is the writing of the worlds follies.
It is important to note that the U.S. and China have a very paradoxical relationship. Each of the two countries owes each other trillions of dollars in debt and one of the reasons I feel there will never be a nuclear war is, each of the countries would like their money back.
Both of the countries would benefit greatly to pay each of their debt, no matter if each country wanted nothing to do with the other afterward.
The Lewisburg, Tennessee based American Bondholder Foundation holds $1.6 trillion of century old Chinese debt, (as of 2017) including interest, dating back before the founding of the communist People’s Republic of China, that it wants the administration’s help in redeeming.
The Chinese government doesn’t like to talk about it. But decades ago, Beijing defaulted on debt owed to Americans, as well as investors and governments around the world. More than 20,000 American investors own this debt. The U.S. government may also own Chinese war debt, unpaid since World War II.
With the simple stroke of an executive proclamation, the U.S. President can begin the process of addressing this issue. A 1930’s era law that has established a quasi-public agency within the Securities and Exchange Commission, known as the Corporation of Foreign Securities Holders, which can arbitrate this dispute, much as a predecessor agency did for decades. China can both afford and benefit from this solution.
Some U.S. investors tried to sue the Chinese government in the 1980’s and 1990’s. However, the Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act makes it very hard for any U.S. citizen to sue a foreign government in U.S. courts because the law generally says that U.S. courts do not have jurisdiction.
Today, the Chinese bonds held by U.S. investors are worth as much or more than $1.6 trillion, according to Jonna Bianco, president of the American Bondholders Foundation, who estimates the value of bonds held by investors worldwide are estimated to be $10 trillion or more, including interest and penalties for default.
Moving right along and as noted above, there are other countries that would like their money back too and an all-out war, would be sure to negate the ability to be able to collect on the debt that is owed, meaning that it would be negative-negative situation for both and not only the U.S. – China, but for many other countries as well and who doesn’t want their money back.
Another issue and one that might start a small war (ship-to-ship) in the South and East China, Yellow, Japan and Okhotsk seas is China’s abuse to the waters. Recently, China was caught pilfering the Okhotsk sea for billions of pounds of squid which did not make North Korea very happy.
Again though, there is a lot more at stake than what meets the eye. Those waters are very rich in minerals and fish of all kinds. It is estimated that ten percent of the East Asian countries fish, squid, etc are harvested from those waters.
So if you start dropping bombs in those waters, it will completely destroy all possibilities of a very much needed food source and nobody, including China wants to see those waters turned into a Bikini Atoll situation as they are still to this day struggling to get those waters cleaned up so the marine life will start to flourish again.
Another and what I feel is most prominent on everyone’s mind in the countries of Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan, Japan and the Philippines is those countries are still reeling in the memories of the sheer destruction to property and people in previous wars. Despite it having been many decades now, I can guarantee that those countries do not want to be involved in a war.
So much so that these countries do not want to be involved, that Taiwan has recently sent a clear message to China’s treats to them, that they will, in time succeed from the communist rule of China.
China is a very antagonistic country. As we have all seen on the babbling news media, China started a small war with India over a long disputed boarder crossing that dates back to 1962. The skirmish lasted about nine weeks in which soldiers from both sides lost lives. India remained steadfast, but more importantly, they remained very smart about it.
China also decided to ramp up the rhetoric speak to other countries: United Kingdom, Australia, Japan and Vietnam. This is, and China knows this quit well, a losing tactic that will only lead to all of the countries that have now teamed up together, to quill the babbling speeches with the end result being “You need to pay your debt.” That statement along will be sure to make Beijing’s Xi and cabinet’s blood boil, but they also know, there is no way in anybody’s fantasy that they would be able to win a war.
What are some of the things, events that some of these countries can do to continue to limit China’s overreach? Simple, for starters, the smaller countries such as Taiwan and the Philippines could use their head to outsmart China by simply stating publicly to the world in a series of televised speeches that they are going to side with and join the big dogs, U.S., United Kingdom, Australia, Japan and Vietnam.
Where the sheer game of chess would be an absolute masterpiece to blow all of the history books out of the library would lie in the simple move that these countries could do and that the only country that would not know it was a game of chess would be the Chinese.
Basically, tell the world “We’re with them,” but not really in the end. Just a production of all productions like never seen before.
Since that fantasy football play in my head will never happen, in the end, after all of the shouting matches and ramped up tensions, and of course, the media’s incisive frocking at the mouth – China’s prayer to continue as it benefits their game of Social Emotional Engineering – it will end up being the United Kingdoms unwilling task to get China to go back home, be quite, to wait another decade to try this again.